Demographic estimates of the flight and expulsion of Germans

Demographic estimates of the flight and expulsion of Germans have been derived by either the compilation of registered dead and missing persons or by a comparison of pre-war and post-war population data. Estimates of the number of displaced Germans vary in the range of 12.0–16.5 million. The death toll attributable to the flight and expulsions was estimated at 2.2 million by the West German government in 1958 using the population balance method. German records which became public in 1987 have caused some historians in Germany to put the actual total at about 500,000 based on the listing of confirmed deaths.The German Historical Museum puts the figure at 600,000 victims, they maintain the official figure of 2 million cannot be supported. However the German Red Cross still maintains that death toll in the expulsions is 2,251,500 persons.

Difficulty of developing accurate estimates
Due to a lack of accurate records listing confirmed deaths, estimates of German population transfers from 1945–1950 and associated deaths depended upon a population balance methodology. West German government official figures derived during the 1950s using the population balance method put the death toll at about 2 million. Recently some German historians believe the death toll is closer to 500,000 based on recently disclosed documentation that listed only confirmed deaths. The wide range of estimates stems from a number of factors. First, the ethnic German population in 1939 was by no means certain because bilingual persons were of dubious German ethnic identity. Second, Civilian losses were overstated because German military casualties in 1945 were poorly documented. Third, After the war it was difficult to gather reliable population data; post war census data in Central and Eastern Europe did not breakout the ethnic German population and during the Cold War there was a lack of cooperation between West Germany and communist bloc countries in the effort to locate persons reported missing. Persons reported missing may have been living in eastern Europe after having been assimilated into the local population. Estimates of total populations expelled and deaths often include figures from the evacuation, because these people were not allowed to return, thus making it difficult to arrive at an accurate and undisputed estimate of population movements and deaths due solely to the expulsions. Some of the differences may arise from political bias, as the expulsion of Germans was widely utilized as political weapon during the Cold War.

There are also disputes over the definition of "expulsion", which may cover the flight and evacuation during the war as well as forced labor and internment before expulsion and deaths due to malnutrition and disease in the post war era. The estimated losses include civilians killed in battle during the flight and evacuation in the final months of the war as well as direct intentional actions of violent soldiers, militias and senseless killings by opportunistic mobs and individuals in the immediate aftermath of the war. Other deaths occurred in post war internment camps and the deportation to the USSR for forced labor. The privations of a forced migration in a postwar environment characterized by crime, chaos, famine, disease, and cold winter conditions added to the death toll. West German sources give only rough estimates to attribute the proportions of these deaths to specific causes.

Population balance method versus counts of confirmed deaths
The West German government during the cold war conducted investigations of the wartime flight and expulsions. The Schieder commission published a series of reports that documented the expulsions based on eyewitness accounts. Schieder chronicled the flight and expulsions, but did not provide background on the wartime crimes of Nazi Germany in Central and Eastern Europe that motivated the Allies to expel the Germans after the war. Schieder in 1953 estimated that 2 million persons perished in Poland, a figure that continues to endure in Germany. Schieder’s estimate of the casualties was superseded by a separate demographic analysis of prepared by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, in 1958 they estimated losses at 2.225 million. The German Church Search Service working with the German Red Cross attempted to trace and identify those who perished in the expulsions. The investigation of the Church Search Service was only partially successful, by 1965 they were able to confirm about 500,000 deaths but could not clarify the fates of 1.9 million persons that were listed as "unsolved". The findings of the Church Search Service were not published until 1987. Another report was issued by the German Federal Archives that identified 600,000 civilian expulsion deaths due to crimes against international law. This report was not published until 1989.

Ingo Haar who is currently on the faculty of the University of Vienna said on 14 November 2006 in Deutschlandfunk that about 500,000 to 600,000 victims are realistic, based on a German governmental studies initiated in the 1960s. Haar said these numbers were compiled from actually reported deaths, while higher figures of about two million deaths were estimated with the population balance method in a German governmental study of 1958. Haar said the higher estimates must be seen in the historical context of the 1950s, when the government of West Germany needed high numbers for political reasons. During the Cold War West Germany wanted to revert to prewar borders in Central Europe. Military historian Rüdiger Overmans said on 6 December 2006 in Deutschlandfunk that only the about 500,000 registered deaths could be counted, and that the unaccounted cases calculated with the population balance method need be confirmed by further research. However on 29 November 2006 State Secretary in the German Federal Ministry of the Interior, Christoph Bergner, reaffirmed the position of the German government that 2 million civilians perished in the flight and expulsion from Central and Eastern Europe. The German Red Cross in 2005 maintained that death toll in the expulsions is 2,251,500 persons.

Method of counting confirmed deaths
Studies of this kind try to count individual deaths, by various means. Sources may include registry death records, police and military records, church files of missing and killed persons, or reports of eye witnesses.

Research by German Church Search Service
A. The work and findings of the German Church Search Service

Already at the end of the war in August 1945 efforts were being made in Germany to trace those persons who were dead or missing in Central and Eastern Europe. A Suchdienst (search service) was set up by the German Roman Catholic and Protestant Churches working with the German Red Cross. In 1950 the West German government provided funding for these efforts and in 1953 they set up a unified body of the Suchdienst (search service) to coordinate these various efforts, organize a complete system of records, clarify the fates of the missing and prepare a final report. The German Red Cross sent 2.8 million questionnaires to survivors in order to obtain relevant information on the fates of the dead and missing. Information was compiled from the records of the local communities in Central and Eastern Europe(Soll-Listen) and eyewitness accounts of the expellees. The work of the Suchdienst (search service) was only partially successful. They were able to survey the records(Soll-Listeen) local communities that encompassed 8.6 million persons, only one half of all Germans in the territory of the expulsions. The work of the Suchdienst (search service) was hampered during the Cold War by the Communist Bloc governments in Central and Eastern Europe who did not extend full cooperation for these West German efforts to trace missing persons. In 1965 the conclusions and final report was issued by the Suchdienst (search service) of the German churches which was able to confirm 473,013 civilian deaths, there were an additional 1,905,991 cases of persons whose fate could not be determined by 1965. This report remained confidential until the end of the Cold War. The West German government authorized its release in 1986 and summary of the findings was published in 1987 by the German scholar de:Gert von Pistohlkors The German Search Service is currently located in Munich Germany, they continue to investigate the fates of those persons missing in the war, in 2005 they maintained that their research put losses at 2,251,500 persons in the expulsions and deportations. They did not provide details of the figure.

Summary of the Population Surveyed by Search Service Investigation

Summary of Results of the Search Service Investigation As of Dec. 31, 1965

Details of the 1,905,991 Unsolved Cases - Deported 68,416; Interned 17,704; Missing 768,010; Deaths 179,810; No Information provided(ohne jeden Hinweis) 872,051. Rüdiger Overmans maintains that the 872,051 cases with no information provided are “Karteileichen”( “card corpses)of persons who could not be traced because insufficient information was provided and therefore of doubtful validity. He considers this to be the most important consideration in the analysis of the 1.9 million unsolved cases.  Summary of the of German Church Search Service Figures in 1965

The authors of the Search Service report used the wartime administrative regions set up by Nazi Germany in Poland and Czechoslovakia as a basis to breakout the population rather than the pre war administrative regions and boundaries. Rudiger Overmans used the description "Poland" to summarize the figures for the region east of the Oder–Neisse line, which included the Former eastern territories of Germany, Danzig, pre war Poland, and the Memel Territory The population surveyed in pre war Poland included Polish citizens on the Volksliste who were of dubious German ancestry. The losses in Poland included deaths in the 1945 military campaign, and post war deaths in the Soviet Kaliningrad region and post war Poland. Confirmed deaths in Poland include 17,209 refugees in Denmark and about 15,000 in Polish internment camps. Figures for the Sudetendeutsch include the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia.

B. Academic commentary on the figures of the Suchdienst (search service)

Dr.Rüdiger Overmans presented a summary of the Suchdienst (search service) data at a 1994 historical symposium in Poland. Overmans believes that the figures of the Church Service are unreliable and should be treated with caution. He made the following observations regarding the Church Service data:


 * Non Germans are included in the total population surveyed.


 * Military deaths are included in the figures. Total military deaths are understated by more than one-half because there was no coordination with the military search service.


 * The figures for expellees in the GDR are not reliable. The number of surviving persons, natural deaths and births after the war in the GDR are understated.


 * The figures of persons deported to the USSR are understated.


 * The reports given by eye witnesses surveyed are not reliable in all cases.


 * Overmans maintains there are more arguments for the lower figure of 500,000 rather than the higher figure of 2.3 million, he believes that since there are only 473,000 confirmed deaths, new research is needed to determine the fate of the 1.9 million reported missing.

The German historian Ingo Haar maintains that the figure of 473,000 confirmed dead provides realistic view of the total losses due to the flight and expulsions. Haar points out that 473,000 confirmed dead as well as the 1.9 million unresolved cases from the Search Service were used by the West German government when compiling the 1958 demographic analysis Die deutschen Vertreibungsverluste at which put losses 2.225 million. Haar maintains that West German government pressured the Statistisches Bundesamt to match the figures of the Search Service in the 1958 demographic analysis even though their figures included unresolved cases which lacked adequate support. After its completion, the German church numbers were archived and not released to the general public - according to Ingo Haar, this was due to a fear that they were "too low" and would lead to "politically undesirable conclusions".

The German historians Hans Henning Hahn and Eva Hahnova have published a detailed study of the flight and expulsions that is sharply critical of German accounts of the cold war era. The Hahn's believe that the official German figure of 2 million deaths is an historical myth that lacks foundation. They point out that the figure of 473,013 confirmed deaths includes 80,522 in the post war internment camps, they maintain that most deaths occurred in the flight and evacuation during the war

1974 German Federal Archive Report
On 28 May 1974, the West German Federal Archive (Bundesarchiv) issued a report following a directive of the Federal Ministry of the Interior to "compile and evaluate information available in the Federal Archives and elsewhere regarding crimes and brutalities committed against Germans in the course of the expulsion". In particular, the report was to identify deaths due to crimes against international law: the 1958 report of the Federal Office for Statistics listed as "post-war losses" two million people whose fate remained unaccounted for in the population balance, but who according to the 1974 report were "not exclusively victims of crimes against international law". The report defined the term "expulsion" (Vertreibung) "according to its prevailing interpretation", i.e. the "whole uprooting process". Sources used for the report were: The final report included deaths confirmed by at least two independent sources. Deaths reported by one source only were rejected unless they met certain reliability criteria laid out in a catalogue adopted from Schieder et al. (1958): Dokumentation der Vertreibung der Deutschen aus Ost-Mittewleuropa Vol. I/1, page IIIf. The report states that the sources hint at the magnitude of crimes, but are not sufficient for a thorough statistic. Of only a faction of the sources it is said that they detail names and number of victims, others would merely point to crime scenes but do not elaborate on numbers and details. Especially the extent of crimes in larger municipalities and, with few exceptions, in camps and prisons is not replicable with the sources given according to the report.
 * about 10,000 eyewitness accounts (Erlebnisberichte), compiled primarily during the "documentation of the expulsion of Germans from East Central Europe", conducted on initiative of the Federal Ministry for Expellees between 1950 and 1953, which since 1955 were stored in the Federal Archive. To this stock added eyewitness accounts from the Secret State Archive (GStA) in Dahlem, from the Main State Archive in Düsseldorf, from the collection of the State Commissioner for Refugee Affairs in Stuttgart and from the collection of the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior, as well as further eyewitness accounts sent to the Federal Archive directly.
 * about 18,000 reports about the fate of municipalities (Gemeindeschicksalsberichte), collected since 1952 in the course of the abovementioned "documentation", and from 1954 to 1959 by the Federal Archive itself. These reports were laid out as standartized questionaries about distinct municipalities and covered 85.2% of the municipalities in the former eastern territories of Germany, the majority of those municipalities in the area of pre-war Poland which were previously home to a German population, and other such municipalities in former Sudetenland and southeastern Europe.
 * about 12,100 so-called "soul lists" (Seelenlisten) compiled between 1952 and 1956 listing the former German inhabitants of rural and small urban communities east of the Oder-Neisse line, in part noting deaths and their causes.
 * information from the archives of German dioceses.

In the areas east of the Oder-Neisse line, the reviewers identified 3,250 crime scenes in the sources. For 630 of those, the number of victims could not be established, while 23,200 people were identified who died at the other 2,620 scenes. To estimate a total number of casualties, the 1974 report relied on a data set retrieved from the 1964 Church Search Service report compiling the most complete of the "soul lists". For 455 rural communities of East Prussia and 432 rural communities of Pomerania, these lists reported 1,731 and 1,278 people killed, respectively, which is about 1% of their 1939 population (152,124 and 137,709 inhabitants, respectively). To the number of these identified deaths added the number of 4,000 missing, some of whom may also be unconfirmed deaths. The 1974 report then relates the 1% confirmed deaths as a minimum value to the 1939 population of the former eastern territories of Germany set at 9.6 million people, thus receiving a number of at least 96,000 people killed in that area during the expulsion. Similarly it was estimated that at least 19,000 people were killed during the expulsions from the area of pre-war Poland, which was calculated as 1% of 1,9 million Germans living there in 1944. On the premise that in the area of pre-war Poland, 20% more people were overrun by the advancing Red Army than in areas occupied later on, the number was adjusted to above 20,000, resulting in a total of at least 120,000 people killed east of the Oder and Neisse rivers. Furthermore, it was estimated that 200,000 people were incarcerated in Polish-run and 110,000 in Soviet-run camps and prisons in that area with death rates between 20% and 50%. Therefore, it was estimated that at least 100,000 people died in these camps and prisons. Another 200,000 people died as a result of deportation to the USSR, based on German Red Cross estimates. From addition of these values, the report found that east of the Oder and Neisse rivers, at least 400,000 people died during the expulsions.

Of the abovementioned sources, 2,000 were concerned with Czechoslovakia (including Sudetenland). Of those, only a faction included reliable numbers of killed Germans adding to about 6,000 confirmed deaths. The report cites an estimate by Kurt W. Böhme (1965): Gesucht wird..., p. 264, according to whom 350.000 Germans were interned in camps, about 100,000 of whom died. From the sources, the 1974 report says that the numbers of the interned are likely to be higher, and refers to another study by A. Bohmann (1959): Das Sudetendeutschtum in Zahlen, p. 199, presenting an estimate of up to one million internees. The report further states that from Czechoslovakia, relatively few Germans were deportated to the USSR.

For Yugoslavia, the report says that their sources confirm that about 7,200 Germans were killed outside of camps. The researchers suspected that the numbers given in the sources are in part inflated, but also referred to sources reporting other killings without quantifying the victims. Adding to those numbers the victims of executions of camp inmates, the report estimates that between 15,000 and 20,000 Germans died a "violent death". The report thereby refers to sources about 49 large camps, where of an estimated total of 67,000 deaths about 8,000 were due to violence, and the rest primarily due to starvation, disease and maltreatment. For many small camps and prisons, as well as for Yugoslav German POWs shot in captivity by partisans, the report lacked detailed sources. Regarding the numbers of Yugoslav Germans deported to the USSR, the report refers to Theodor Schieder et al. (1958): Dokumentation der Vertreibung vol. V, p. 97E, citing the numbers of 27,000 to 30,000 deportees and the respective death toll of 4,500 people given there. The report postulates that at least 80,000 Yugoslav Germans died during the expulsions.

The report concludes that
 * no distinct group of Germans was preferred as target, instead the remaining German population was targeted as a whole
 * the perpetrators were identified as members of the Red Army, the NKVD, Polish militia and security forces, Czechoslovak people's guard and liberation army and Yugoslav partisans
 * the sources used for the report were insufficient to calculate a comprehensive balance, especially for the situation in larger communities and camps the available sources were too fragmentary for an overview
 * the sources differed in their accounts of number of inmates and deaths in camps
 * the total numbers of deaths given in the report are "rough estimates".

Expulsion Deaths Listed by German Federal Archives 1974

Source: German Federal Archive, Spieler, Silke ''Vertreibung und Vertreibungsverbrechen 1945-1948. Bericht des Bundesarchivs vom 28. Mai 1974. Archivalien und ausgewählte Erlebnisberichte''. Bonn 1989 Pages 53–54 The authors maintain that these figures cover only those deaths caused violent acts and inhumanities(Unmenschlichkeiten) and do not include post war deaths due to malnutrition and disease. Also not included are those persons who were raped or suffered mistreatment and did not die immediately. No figures were given for Romania and Hungary.

Rüdiger Overmans believes that the 1974 report is not definitive and that new research is needed to determine total deaths due to the expulsions. Overmans made the following observations regarding the German Federal Archives Report:


 * Some deaths may have gone unreported in the Archives study because there were no eye witnesses to the events.


 * The German Federal Archives Report is not comparable to the other studies because the USSR, Hungary, Romania and deaths in the air war were not surveyed.


 * Overmans maintains there are more arguments for the lower figures of 500,000 to 600,000 rather than the higher figures of over 2.0 million

The German historian Ingo Haar believes a realistic view of the total deaths due to the expulsions is in the range of 500,000 to 600,000. Harr maintains that these figures include post war deaths due to malnutrition and disease and that the higher figures of over 2.0 million have been overstated by the German government for political reasons.

Since the fall of the USSR the Soviet archives have been accessible to researchers. The Russian scholar Pavel Polian in 2001 published an account of the deportations during the Soviet era, Against Their Will, Polian's study detailed the Soviet statistics on the employment of German civilian labor during the Stalin era. The research by Polian put the number of deported Germans at 271,672 and deaths at about 66,000. During the Cold war the German Red Cross made rough estimates of those deported at about 400,000 persons of whom about 200,000 perished, these figures were used by the German Federal Archives to compile their 1974 report on deportations to the USSR. The recent disclosures by Polian contradict the figures in the German Federal Archives report of 1974.

In 1995, a joint German and Czech commission of historians revised the number of civilian deaths in Czechoslovakia to between 15,000 and 30,000 persons During the Cold war German historians made rough estimates of about 350,000 persons interned in Czechoslovakia of whom 100,000 perished, these estimates were used by the German Federal Archives They also estimated 30,000 persons killed during the Prague uprising and in post- war Czechoslovakia. The recent report by the joint German and Czech commission of historians contradict the figures in the German Federal Archives report of 1974.

The German historians Hans Henning Hahn and Eva Hahnova have published a detailed study of the flight and expulsions that put the number of dead in Polish internment camps at 15,000 based on information recently published in Poland. These recent disclosures contradict the figures in the German Federal Archives report of 1974 that put the figure at 60,000. However, the Polish historians Witold Sienkiewicz and Grzegorz Hryciuk maintain that the internment '' "resulted in numerous deaths, which cannot be accurately determined because of lack of statistics or falsification. Periodically, they could be 10% of inmates. Those interned are estimated at  200-250,000 Germans and the local population, and deaths might range from 15,000 to 60,000 persons." ''

Method Using the Population Balance Method
Estimates for the population losses in the Expulsions that appear in historical literature are ultimately derived from reports published by the German government. The methodology behind these figures is a computation of the estimated population deficit.

Early estimates compiled in the 1950s
In 1950 West German Government made a preliminary estimate of 3.0 million dead and missing whose fate needed to be clarified. In 1953 the German scholar Gotthold Rhode made a demographic estimate of 3,140,000 dead and missing German military personnel and civilians in Central and Eastern Europe from 1939 to 1950. Bruno Gleitze estimated in 1953 800,000 civilian deaths (for Germany within 1937 borders only) among only "Eastern Germans" in the area of the expulsion These early estimates were superseded by subsequent publication in 1958 of the demographic study by the West German government statistical office.

The Schieder commission
From 1954 to 1961 Schieder commission issued five reports on the flight and expulsions, they estimated a death toll of about 2.3 million civilians. The head of the Commission was Dr. Theodor Schieder a rehabilitated former member of the Nazi party. In 1952 Schieder was chosen by the West German government to head the Commission that would document the fate of the Germans from East-Central Europe. The Schieder commission has been criticized because it covered the flight and expulsions but did not provide background on the wartime crimes of Germany in East-Central Europe that triggered the post war expulsions The death toll estimated by the Schieder commission was superseded by subsequent publication in 1958 of the demographic study by the West German government statistical office.

Flight and Expulsion Deaths-Estimates by Schieder commission

Notes


 * Figure of 2 million for Oder-Neisse region includes about 1.6 million in the Former eastern territories of Germany, 217,000 in the borders of pre war Poland and 100,000 in Danzig.


 * Figure of 2 million for Oder-Neisse region includes 75,000 to 100,000 civilian deaths prior to May 1945 during military campaign.


 * Figure of 2 million for Oder-Neisse region includes 100,000 to 125,000 civilian deaths in the Forced labor of Germans in the Soviet Union.


 * Figure of 2 million for Oder-Neisse region does not include deaths among the over 800,000 Germans Resettled in Poland during the war.


 * Figure of 2 million for Oder-Neisse region does not include an additional 500,000 military and 50,000 civilian air raid dead


 * Figure of 6,000 deaths for Hungary are due to the Forced labor of Germans in the Soviet Union


 * Figure of 40,000 deaths for Romania includes 10,000 in the Forced labor of Germans in the Soviet Union and 30,000 deaths in the Oder-Neisse region among the 160,000 Germans of Romania resettled in Poland during the war.


 * Figure of 69,000 for Yugoslavia includes 2,631 during wartime flight; 5,777 executed by Soviet and Yugoslav forces; 5,683 deportation deaths (including 4,500 to 5,000 in the Forced labor of Germans in the Soviet Union); 48,027 in Yugoslav internment camps; 187 in prisons and 6,273 missing.

West German Government Demographic Study of 1958
The West German Federal Statistical Office of Germany was responsible for analyzing the figures relating to the population losses. In 1958 they issued a final report, estimating a demographic loss of some 2.225 million German civilians in all of Central and Eastern Europe. The figures listed in the table below are from this report Die deutschen Vertreibungsverluste(The German Expulsion Casualties) The West German government report of 1958, using prewar population figures, wartime estimates and postwar figures from both German states and in Central and Eastern Europe, concluded that 3,325,000 people died war and expulsions, and estimated that 1,100,000 of these were war dead, including 11,500 civilians killed by Allied Strategic Bombing (up until 1/31/1945), thus reducing the number of civilian deaths in the flight during the war and the subsequent expulsions to 2.225 million. The 1958 German government report also listed a total of approximately 12.0 million who were actually expelled. The summary table in the West German government statistical office report uses a description giving total "post war losses" of 2.225 million persons, however the detailed analysis in the text lists 169,000 civilian deaths during the flight and evacuation during the war ( 128,000 pre-war Germany, 35,000 Czechoslovakia and 4,000 Hungary). The figures in the report also include losses during the Forced labor of Germans in the Soviet Union.

Source: Die deutschen Vertreibungsverluste. Bevölkerungsbilanzen für die deutschen Vertreibungsgebiete 1939/50.Herausgeber: Statistisches Bundesamt - Wiesbaden. - Stuttgart: Verlag W. Kohlhammer, 1958 The Statistisches Bundesamt noted in the introduction that since the conclusion of their study in mid 1958 data had been  published in East Germany that would put the estimated total of surviving expellees in East Germany at 127,000 higher than the figures presented in the Die deutschen Vertreibungsverluste In November 1958 the Statistisches Bundesamt published revised figures that put losses for  Germany in 1937 Borders at 1,212,100 persons, 127,000 less than the Die deutschen Vertreibungsverluste

Notes


 * English language sources published during the cold war dealing with the expulsions put the death toll at 2 to 3 million based on the West German government statistical analysis of the 1950s.


 * In 2006 The German government reaffirmed its belief that 2 million civilians perished in the flight and expulsion from Central and Eastern Europe. They maintain that the figure is correct because it includes additional post war deaths from malnutrition and disease of those civilians subject to the expulsions. On 29 November 2006 State Secretary in the German Federal Ministry of the Interior, Christoph Bergner, outlined the stance of the respective governmental institutions in Deutschlandfunk saying that the numbers presented by the German government and others are not contradictory to the numbers cited by Haar, and that the below 600,000 estimate comprises the deaths directly caused by atrocities during the expulsion measures and thus only includes people who on the spot were raped, beaten, or else brought to death, while the above two millions estimate also includes people who on their way to post-war Germany have died of epidemics, hunger, cold, air raids and the like.


 * The German historian Ingo Haar believes that civilian losses in the expulsions have been overstated in Germany for decades for political reasons. Haar argues that during the Cold War the West German government put political pressure on the Statistisches Bundesamt to push the figures upward to agree to the unreliable Church Service figure of 2.3 million dead and missing. Harr disputes the statements of the German government and maintains that the lower estimates of 500-600,000 deaths already include post war deaths due to malnutrition and disease. He also maintains that the figures for the population of prewar Germany include 27,000 Jewish victims of the Holocaust. Harr points out that these issues were raised with the West German government, but the inflated numbers continued to be used when the demographic report was published in 1958 in order to agree with the previous findings of the Schieder commission and the Church Search Service.


 * The German scholar Dr. Rüdiger Overmans believes that the statistical foundations of the 1958 West German government demographic report to be questionable and cannot be regarded as definitive. Overmans made the following observations on figures of the 1958 demographic report.


 * 1-The report is not mathematically consistent, because it was not properly proof read.


 * 2-The figures of Germans were overstated by including persons who were of doubtfull German ethnic identity. Persons who became assimilated into the local population in Central and Eastern Europe are included in those persons reported as missing.


 * 3-The figure given by the Statistisches Bundesamt for the total German population effected by the expulsions is 16.5 million which is higher than the Church Search Service figure of 16.2 million persons. The two figures are not directly comparable because the Church Search Service figure includes 700,000 Soviet Germans not included in the Statistisches Bundesamt study, which means that the figure for the total population used to compute losses by the Statistisches Bundesamt is inflated by 1.0 million persons.


 * 4-Military losses are understated thus inflating civilian losses.


 * 5-The number of surviving expellees in the GDR is understated thus inflating losses..


 * 6-Overmans maintains that there are more arguments for a lower figure of 500,000 rather than the higher figures of over 2.0 million. He believes that the previous studies by the German government should be subject to critical revision and new research is needed to establish the actual number of expulsion deaths.


 * In his 2000 study of German military casualties Dr. Rüdiger Overmans found 344,000 additional military deaths of Germans from the Former eastern territories of Germany and conscripted ethnic Germans from Central and Eastern Europe. Overmans believes this will reduce the number of civilians previously listed as missing in the expulsions.


 * The Polish scholar Piotr Eberhardt found that; Generally speaking, the German estimates…are not only highly arbitrary, but also clearly tendentious in presentation of the German losses He maintains that the German government figures from 1958 overstated the total number of the ethnic Germans living in Poland prior to war as well as the total civilian deaths due to the expulsions. For example, Eberhardt points out that the total number of Germans in Poland is given as equal 1,371,000. According to the Polish census of 1931 there were altogether only 741,000 Germans on the entire territory of Poland.


 * The German historians Hans Henning Hahn and Eva Hahnova have published a detailed study of the flight and expulsions that is sharply critical of German accounts of the cold war era. The Hahn's believe that the official German figure of 2 million deaths is an historical myth that lacks foundation. The Hahns pointed out that the official 1958 figure of 273,000 deaths for Czechoslovakia was prepared by Alfred Bohmann an ex-Nazi party member who had served in the wartime SS, Bohmann was a journalist for an ultra-nationalist Sudeten-Deutsch newspaper in post war West Germany. The Hahn's maintain that the figures for the total ethnic German population in Central and Eastern Europe also include German speaking Jews killed in the Holocaust


 * The organizations of the ethnic German Expellees from Yugoslavia have traced the fate of the civilians who perished in the expulsions. In 1991-1995 the results of their research were published in a four volume study that listed the names and cause of death for each person. The study identified 57,841 civilians confirmed as dead and 889 listed as missing. This contradicts the 1958 study that estimated losses at 136,000.


 * In 1996 a joint Czech-German Historical commission found that the demographic estimate by the German government of 270,000 civilian deaths due to the expulsions from Czechoslovakia was based on faulty data. They estimated total deaths of 15,000-30,000

Study by Gerhard Reichling
Population Balance Estimated by Gerhard Reichling 1986

Source for figures-Dr. Gerhard Reichning, Die deutschen Vertriebenen in Zahlen, Teil 1, Bonn 1995. Page 36


 * A 1986 study by Dr. Gerhard Reichling "Die deutschen Vertriebenen in Zahlen" (the German expellees in figures) concluded 2,020,000 ethnic Germans perished after the war including 1,440,000 as a result of the expulsions and 580,000 deaths due to deportation as forced laborers in the Soviet Union. The figures were rough estimates made by Reichling and not based on an actual enumeration of the dead. Dr. Kurt Horstmann of the Federal Statistical Office of Germany wrote the forward to the study, endorsing the work of Reichling. Reichling was an employee of the Federal Statistical Office who was involved in the study of German expulsion statistics since 1953.


 * The German historians Hans Henning Hahn and Eva Hahnova have provided an analysis of the work by Reichling. They remark that his work basically a new variant of the information that had been published previously. They refer to his study as "old wine in new bottles" that "magically" comes up with the official figure of 2 million expulsion deaths. They outline his career as an official in the West German civil service that focused on the fate of the expellees in post war Germany. The authors mention that Reichling does not clearly explain to readers that the Nazi racial policy of resettlement and deportation during the war was the underlying cause of the subsequent expulsion of the Germans after the war.

Federation of Expellees' estimates
The German foundation Centre Against Expulsions of the Federation of Expellees has compiled the following data from various sources.

This more detailed accounting is susceptible to specific objections and questions about the meaning of the numbers. While the table is presented as estimates of the number of expelled, and column Expelled by suggests which government was responsible, these assertions have been questioned. The following points are relevant to the interpretation of the above statistics


 * The statistics used to compile the list of dead by the Centre Against Expulsions are derived from the Schieder commission reports and the 1958 the West German Government Demographic Study Die deutschen Vertreibungsverluste. Ingo Haar maintains that the statistical basis of the data used by the Centre Against Expulsions is empirically unsound. Haar believes out that the statistics include missing persons whose fate in Central and Eastern Europe could not be clarified during the cold war and does not necessarily mean that they were deaths in the expulsions. Haar points out that the Centre Against Expulsions includes deaths in the wartime flight with the subsequent expulsions.


 * Many Germans were evacuated by German authorities and died during Soviet military operations, starvation and extreme cold during the final months of the war. The German population arrived in a post war Germany that was ravaged by starvation and disease. Polish historians maintain that that most of the deaths occurred during the flight and evacuation during the war, the deportation to the U.S.S.R. for forced labor and after the resettlement due to the harsh conditions in the Soviet occupation zone in post war Germany. This is in sharp contrast to the position Centre Against Expulsions which implies that these deaths were due to the post war expulsions.


 * The number of Germans who were expelled was a fraction of those who arrived in Germany. Of the total 11.6 million persons listed by Germany as Expellees, 4.5 million fled during the war, 2.6 million were returned POW and 4.5 million were actually deported to Germany after the war.


 * Poland, Hungary and Romania were controlled by Soviet authorities during the post war era when the expulsions occurred. The nominal governments did not have control over policy. Yugoslavia was controlled by Titoist partisans at this time. Czechoslovakia did not come under direct Communist control until 1948.


 * The basis of great part of the expulsion was Potsdam Agreement (Article 12) agreed by the USA, UK and the USSR.

Allied Strategic Bombing
In early 1945, the then German city of Swinemünde (Świnoujście in contemporary Poland) was the destination port for refugees from East Prussia. On the 12th of March 1945, the US Eighth Air Force raided the city. Due to uncertainty concerning the number of refugees within the city the exact number of casualties is unknown. As the capacity of air raid shelters was limited to the regular populace, many refugees were killed at the spa gardens. The motor vessel Andros, carrying about 2,000 refugees, had just arrived at the harbour and was sunk with the loss of about 570 people. About 500 victims of the raid were identified and buried close to the entrance of the cemetery and the remaining dead were buried in mass graves. The estimated number of victims, including residents of Swinemünde who were also encompassed by the expulsions, varies from about 5,000 to 23,000. 1958 the West German Government demographic study of expellee deaths estimated the total civilian dead in the East Pommerian region due to Anglo-American air raids after 1/31/45 at 8,000. The German War Graves Commission estimates that 20,000 victims are buried at the Golm War Cemetery with further burials within the town limits.

An unknown number of refugees from the east were among the estimated total 18,000-25,000 dead in the Bombing of Dresden in World War II. The German historian Rüdiger Overmans believes that “the number of refugee dead in the Dresden bombing was only a few hundred, hardly thousands or tens of thousands”

Estimates concerning The Czech Republic only
In the Czech Republic these events are not referred to as expulsions, rather they use the expression "Odsun" meaning "evacuation" in English. In the case of Czech Republic, The 1996 Report of the Commission on the losses connected with the transfer, which was prepared at the joint Czech-German Historical Commission. It reported that the number of deaths was 15,000 to 30,000 and that number of 220,000 estimated by the Centre Against Expulsions is not supported by the evidence. The Commission was abel to confirm 15,580 deaths related to the expulsions and an additional 6,667 suicides, a total of 22,247 confirmed deaths. In the final report the Commission raised the total estimated maximum to 30,000 deaths in order to account for the possibility of unreported deaths.The commission found that the demographic estimates by the German government of 220,000 to 270,000 civilian deaths due to expulsions from Czechoslovakia were based on faulty data. The Commission determined that the demographic estimates by the German government counted as missing 90,000 ethnic Germans assimilated into the Czech population; military deaths were understated and that the 1950 census data used to compute the demographic losses was unreliable. 

Developing a clear picture of the expulsion of Germans from Czechoslovakia is difficult because of the chaotic conditions that existed at the end of the war. There was no stable central government and record-keeping was non-existent. Many of the events that occurred during that period were spontaneous and local rather than being the result of coordinated policy directives from a central government. Among these spontaneous events was the removal and detention of the Sudeten Germans which was triggered by the strong anti-German sentiment at the grass-roots level and organized by local officials.

Records of food rationing coupons show approximately 3,325,000 inhabitants of occupied Sudetenland in May 1945. Of these, about 500,000 were Czechs or other non-Germans. Thus, there were approximately 2,725,000 Germans in occupied Sudetenland in May 1945.

On the initiative of the joint Czech-German Commission of Historians, a statistical and demographic investigation was conducted, resulting in the publication of the "Opinion of the Commission on the losses connected with the transfer". The number that the commission arrived at has since been accepted by a large section of the historians, press and media in other countries:


 * 1) Figures for the victims of the transfer vary enormously and are thus extremely controversial. The values given in German statistical calculations [for deaths resulting from expulsion of Germans from Czechoslovakia] vary between 220,000 and 270,000 cases that are unaccounted for, which are in many cases interpreted as deaths; the figures given in research carried out so far varies between 15,000 and 30,000 deaths.
 * 2) The discrepancy is due to differing notions of the term "victims of the transfer".
 * 3) In the Commission's view, a particular problem with the "balance-sheet" approach is that most of the data it works with are based on model calculations and estimates that are derived from quantities that cannot be compared with one another.

Tracing the Fates of Individuals In Yugoslavia
The organizations of the ethnic German Expellees from Yugoslavia have traced the fate of the civilians who perished in the expulsions. In 1991-1995 the results of their research were published in a four volume study that listed the names and cause of death of each person. The following is a summary of their findings.

The report also listed the deaths of 605 civilians killed in military operations outside of Yugoslavia and 26,064 men who were dead and missing in the German Armed forces. The report mentioned that a total of 166,970 civilians were interned by the Yugoslav authorities and an additional 12,380 were deported to the USSR as forced laborers.

Source: Leidensweg der Deutschen im kommunistischen Jugoslawien / verfasst vom Arbeitskreis Dokumentation im Bundesverband der Landsmannschaft der Donauschwaben aus Jugoslawien, Sindelfingen, und in der Donauschwäbischen Kulturstiftung, München. Imprint München : Die Stiftung, 1991-1995. Vol 4 p. 1018–1019

Poland expulsions and deportations
In Poland, these events are not referred to as expulsions, rather they use the expression Wysiedlenie i emigracja ludności niemieckiej – The Deportation and Emigration of the German people.

A 2005 study in Poland reported the data of Polish government indicated that about 4 million Germans remained on Polish territory in mid-1945, out of the pre-war population of about 10 million. The remaining balance were killed in the war, held as POWs or had fled to Germany in the final months of the war. By 1950, about three million persons had been deported from Poland and 1.1 million persons were verified as Polish citizens.

By 1964, the Suchdienst (search service) of the German churches was able to confirm 367,392 civilian deaths from the territory of contemporary Poland (detailed as follows: 44,603 violent deaths; 10,330 suicides; 32,947 forced labor dead; 27,847 in the transit camps prior to expulsion; 86,860 during the flight west; 57,814 after the expulsions; and 106,991 cause undetermined). There were an additional 1,404,993 unconfirmed cases of persons reported dead and missing.

The 1974 report of the German archives estimated 60,000 German civilians died in Polish communist camps and 40,0000 in Soviet detention in Poland, not including 100,000 killed by the Red Army and their Allies during the war and 200,000 in forced labor in the USSR.

The Polish historian Bernadetta Nitschke has provided a summary of the research in Poland on the calculation of German losses due to the flight and resettlement of the Germans from Poland only, not including other Central and Eastern European countries. Nitschke contrasted the estimate of 1.6 million deaths in Poland reported in 1958 by the West German government with the more recent figure of 400,000 that was detailed by Rudiger Overmans in 1994. She noted that the Polish researcher Stefan Banasiak estimated in 1963 that the death toll during the post-war deportations was 1,136 persons, a figure accepted by other Polish historians who maintain that that most of the deaths occurred during the flight and evacuation during the war, the deportation to the U.S.S.R. for forced labor and after the resettlement due to the harsh conditions in the Soviet occupation zone in post war Germany. This is in sharp contrast to the 1958 West German government Schieder commission report, which maintained that these deaths occurred after the war on Polish territory.

2,612,000 Germans left Poland from February 1946 to December 1949 according to S. Jankowiak, as cited by B. Nitschke.

During the pre-Potsdam expulsions, many Germans were forced to march over 100 and sometimes even 200 kilometres. Different estimates of the number of Germans expelled by People's Army of Poland alone during pre-Potsdam deportations (all numbers after Jankowiak): 365,000 to 1,200,000 Germans were deported by Polish administration.

The 1958 German government report of 1958 listed 7,960,000 expellees from Poland (including the pre-war territories of Germany, Poland and Danzig). This figure includes those persons who fled during the war and returned POWs as well as those who left Poland after the war.

Estimated deaths


 * 1200 thousand, according to K.Kersten, 1964
 * In 1965 Andrzej Brożek estimated losses at 1,020,000 in Poland. Barbara Nitschke dismisses this number as too high.
 * 300 thousand, according to S.Banasiak
 * 400 thousand, K.Skubiszewski
 * 500 thousand, A.Ogrodowczyk
 * 300-400 thousand, S.Chojnecki, 1980
 * 350-450 thousand, A.Magierska, 1978
 * 200-250 thousand, T.Białecki, 1970
 * 620-630 thousand, S.Zwoniński, 1983
 * 230-250 thousand, Cz. Osękowski
 * 500–550 thousand, Z. Romanow
 * 400 thousand, B.Nitschke
 * 400 thousand, M.Wille, 1996
 * 600–700 thousand
 * 1.6 million per 1958 German government study
 * 367,000 per 1965 German Church Service
 * 400,000 per 1974 German Archives study

Germans remaining in Poland
Former German citizens remaining in Poland after 1950 in the Oder-Neisse territories are put at 1.1 million according to 1950 Polish Census figures including "autochthons" – Polish-speaking or bilingual German citizens – in Upper Silesia, Masuria and West Prussia. This figure was confirmed by the 1950 German government demographic study of the population. Dr. Gerhard Reichling in 1995 put the total number at 1.3 million in 1950(Note: A significant proportion of Germans remaining in postwar Poland were allowed to emigrate after 1956 and benefited as a result of Brandt's Ostpolitik.)