Proud Prophet

Proud Prophet was a simulated war game played by the United States in 1983. With an ongoing arms buildup against the Soviet Union, President Ronald Reagan and his Administration had a great deal of concern for the U.S. nuclear war plan and what may occur if we did not take action. After being briefed on the strike plan in place, President Reagan was unsatisfied and took measures to simulate a response to the onset of a nuclear war. The simulation consisted of 200 Military Personnel and Politicians with only twelve days of actual play. Stretching the twelve days of gameplay over several week periods, Personnel involved in the simulation were forced to make critical strategic and diplomatic decisions to test the effectiveness of the United States strike plan. Due to heightened tensions with the ongoing Cold War made this simulation the most realistic in United States Military history. For the first time ever, the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff took part in the game, although their participation was concealed. One of the main purposes of the simulation was to test the response of the National Command Authority's (NCA) decision making when dealing with many different situations at once. Although Proud Prophet was intended to help senior officials test their nuclear strategies, it was apparent that many of the concepts in place were incompatible with current Military capabilities. Many important parts of this simulation saw limited use of de-escalation tactics. If a risk of a war did occur, many Military advisors saw the use of nuclear missiles as the deterring factor when dealing with the Soviet Union. The idea behind this concept was that Soviet forces would seek ceasefire if the West moved to use nuclear weapons. The final outcome of the Proud Prophet war game would show the need to resolve global issues in times of war or potential war. The outcome of an all-out nuclear war is the total destruction of both sides involved, and a death toll nearly reaching half a billion with the remaining dying from starvation or lethal doses of radiation. The government file for Proud Prophet was not declassified until December 20, 2012, and was only declassified in part. While there is no known reason why it was unclassified under the Obama administration.

Educational Objectives
The educational objectives discussed based on Section II, Background Information, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document.
 * The main objective was to expose the politico-military game players to make difficult decisions with different levels of uncertainty
 * Players and observers were to learn more about the possible consequences of each decision made
 * Overall, gain insight to what can start a war
 * Explore the effects of using conventional and unconventional warfare for different situations where the enemy may be either vulnerable or prepared
 * Figure out the best methods to terminate the hostilities

List of Commands and Agencies Involved
The list of organizations involved are found in Section II, Background Information, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document.
 * United States Department of Defense
 * United States Department of State
 * Central Intelligence Agency
 * Defense Intelligence Agency
 * Joint Chiefs of Staff
 * United States Department of the Army
 * United States Department of the Navy
 * United States Department of the Air Force
 * United States Department of Transportation
 * United States Coast Guard
 * U.S. Atlantic Command
 * U.S. European Command
 * U.S. Pacific Command
 * U.S. Readiness Command
 * U.S. Southern Command
 * Strategic Air Command
 * Military Airlift Command
 * Military Traffic Management Command
 * Military Sealift Command
 * Defense Nuclear Agency
 * National Defense University
 * Army War College
 * Air War College
 * Naval War College
 * Army National Guard
 * Air National Guard
 * Army Reserve
 * Naval Reserve
 * Marine Corps Reserve
 * Air Force Reserve
 * Coast Guard Reserve
 * Army Intelligence and Security Command
 * 5th Psychological Operations Group
 * United States Army Reserve
 * Team B

Background
The antagonism of the Cold War forced the United States leadership to contemplate the eventuality of a nuclear war, and how that decision may affect the American people. By the early 1980's, the Soviet Union had been on a two-decade arms buildup, including its nuclear and political arsenal. The question facing the United States was the best way to respond to this buildup. A number of strategies were proposed, including the launch of warning, demonstration nuclear attacks, limited nuclear war, decapitation attacks on Soviet command and control, shifting a war into the Far East by attacking Soviet bases there, weapons in space, NATO armies charging into Eastern Europe and recruiting the Polish and Czech armies to help, and have China attack the Soviet Union in a two-front war. The multitude of proposed strategies necessitated an evaluation of their feasibility and practicality. There was much debate on this issue, which came to a head when Andrew W. Marshall, the director of net assessment, suggested a group is set up to help the Secretary of Defense assess the various strategies he was presented with and explore new options. This group consisted of military officers from each of the armed services, as well as senior civilians and consultants. These individuals would be granted access to the resources that the National War College had to offer, with no military interference.

However, this idea was not very popular with many generals, which led to the formulation of the Strategic Concepts Development Center (SCDC). The Secretary of State at the time, Caspar Weinberger, brought in Phillip A. Karber as the founding director, asking him to bring in the best and brightest strategists that represented many different views. This whole operation had to be done with the utmost confidentiality, making it that much harder. Soon after, the suggestion of a war game was brought up.

KAL-007
Main Article Korean Air Lines Flight 007

The Soviet Union lived in significant fear of World War Three, and because of this, tended to have a hair trigger when it came to reacting to an event. Because of this, the threat of nuclear war was a very real possibility, even if the reasons were a complete misunderstanding. The Soviet Union was ready to go at any time, especially after being scared many times for smaller reasons. On the night of September 1, 1983, a civilian Boeing 747 en route to South Korea passed into Soviet airspace near the Siberian coast. An Sukhoi Su-15 interceptor aircraft piloted by Gennadi Osipovich targeted the civilian aircraft and shot it down with two missiles. The Soviets claimed that they knew it was a civilian aircraft, however, they said it would be very easy to convert a civilian aircraft into an intelligence gathering platform. The Soviets claimed they believed they had a justification to shoot down this aircraft because they perceived it to be a hostile intruder. There was one American on board, Larry McDonald who was a United States House of Representative member. Oleg Gordievsky believes that the Soviet Union mistook the civlian airliner to be a United States Boeing RC-135, which is a reconnaissance gathering aircraft which looks very similar to a Boeing 747 due to the fact that it has four engines and a wide body similar to the airliner. This is refuted by the pilot's of the attacking Soviet aircraft claiming that he knew it was a civilian jet, but he shot it down anyway because it could have been easily converted for reconnaissance. The attitude of the Soviets towards anything that might be perceived as a threat was devolving more and more towards a 'shoot first, ask questions later' mentality. While it may have been uncalled for, Soviets were on edge about everything at this point. This would prove to be incredibly dangerous in the impending strategic nuclear war exercises about to be conducted by the United States and its NATO allies.

Able Archer 83
Main article Able Archer 83

Able Archer 83 took place between November 2–11, 1983. This was a strategic arms exercise conducted by the United States Government in order to simulate an escalating nuclear conflict. Able Archer 83 occurred just two months after the shoot down incident of Korean Air Lines Flight 007. The United States was simulating the deployment and use of the Pershing II nuclear missile system that was being developed at the time. The Soviets suspected the United States of performing a surprise nuclear attack with the Pershing II system, despite the fact that the Pershing II missiles were not delivered to Europe until November 22, eleven days after the conclusion of Able Archer 83. The Soviets believed the United States had determined that a nuclear war was technically winnable. The reason behind this rationale by the Soviet Union was related to the fact that the United States had just recently upgraded its Minuteman III ICBM to the Minuteman IIIA. This ICBM was several times more accurate and had twice the yield of its predecessors, thus making Soviet hardened nuclear silos a viable target. That same year, the United States also introduced the Trident C-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile. All of these factors combined to make the Able Archer 83 test and incredibly stressful and dangerous time.

Able Archer was a standard military exercise that was performed annually by the United States. Unfortunately in 1983, the aforementioned factors all came into play at the wrong time, and Soviet nuclear threat perceptions were at a critical level. While the United States Chiefs of Staff remained largely indifferent to this Soviet perception, the exercise was nothetheless "toned down" in order to assuage fears of impending WWIII. President Reagan and Vice President Bush were removed from participating in the exercise, however it still remained one of the most realistic exercises to date, with a complete simulation of NATO forces going to DEFCON 1. The Soviet leaderships suspiscion of Able Archer 83 as an attempt at a surprise nuclear attack masquerading as an exercise grew with intelligence collections of United States message traffic which was "unusual" in its message formats and ocmmunications procedures. The unusual message procedures led Soviet leadership to believe that Able Archer may not be an exercise at all. This was coupled with a "too literal" interpretation of the scenario, whereby NATO forces were perceived by the Soviets to be at DEFCON 1. In actuality, the NATO forces were never at DEFCON 1, it was all simulated, however Soviet leadership still mistook the exercise for a real event.

RYAN
Main Article RYAN

Project VRYAN, or RYAN as it is more commonly known, is the Russian acronym for surprise nuclear attack. It was the largest Soviet intelligence gathering program ever mounted in peacetime. The objective of RYAN was to monitor the United States and its NATO allies for any indicator whatsoever of an impending nuclear first strike. Project RYAN had the highest priority over any other intelligence gathering initiative in the Soviet Union at the time, including any currently being undertaken by the KGB or the GRU. There were hundreds of indicators which were monitored by Project RYAN, including the United States economy. More specifically, any large scale purchase of gold by the United States which may indicate an impending nuclear apocalypse.

Traditional Soviet doctrine called for a first strike in order to make a nuclear war technically winnable. The Soviets kept most of their missiles in silos located throughout the country, whereas the United States had the majority of their warheads deployed on submarines. This fact contributed to the Soviet Union's increasing paranoia towards the United States, and more specifically, any exercises or war games the United States might participate in. Through this mindset came the philosophy of a Launched On Tactical Warning (LOTW) strike by the Soviets. This was essentially an automatic launch system that would deploy the Soviet Unions warheads at any sign of incoming United States missiles via radar or satellite detection. Because of Project VYAN, any misreading of western intentions could have disatrous consequences. The perception in the Soviet Union at the time was that the United States would stop at nothing to destroy them, including nuclear annihilation. KGB officers who were familiar with the west had no real sway in convincing others that there would never be a nuclear strike.

The directives of Project RYAN underscore how deeply rooted the idea of a western first strike was in the minds of high-ranking Soviet officials. They truly believed that nuclear war was imminent, and the fear of a surprise nuclear attack was rapidly growing. The intent of Project RYAN was not so the Soviets could strike second, it was to ensure the Soviets had the necessary information in order to strike first.

Background
Team B was a military defense group formed in the late 1970's. This defense group was formed with the Central Intelligence Agency. The government was already having concerns about Soviet Union nuclear weapon, so they created this alliance to see what might be coming at the United States from Soviet powers. Team B was the reaction to the serious apprehension of the Soviet Union who believed that they could possibly be on the brink of World War lll. Many members of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board thought it was absurd to do something like this. The main purpose of Team B, that is slightly related to Proud Prophet, was to observe what the Soviets could be sending towards the United States of America and what exactly we should be preparing ourselves for. Now that Team B files are practically fully declassified, it is easy to see that most of the ideas they were thinking were largely wrong.

Background
Ronald Reagan, President of the United States from 1981 to 1989, came into office at the back end of the Cold War, when tensions were once again escalating between America and the Soviet Union after the Détente of the 1970's.

Despite treaties and economics being used as a means to weaken the Soviet Union, the Reagan Administration still had concerns on whether or not the Cold War would escalate to nuclear war. In an attempt to be prepared for the worst, a number of strategies were studied to test all avenues of this war—from peaceful negotiations to Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). The administration used techniques such as talks and games to determine the nature of the war and the temperament of the Soviet Union.

Displeased with the number of nuclear weapons in the world and recognizing the very real threat nuclear weapons posed to the United States (which had grown significantly at this time, the United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, and India having joined the nuclear armed nations), Reagan became ever more interested in finding a way to rid the world of nuclear threat. This dislike for nuclear weapons, however, extends all the way back to the start of his first term in which, upon the briefing of his different available nuclear strategies he was rendered sick, the meeting having to be reschedule. 1983 proved to be a very tense year for the Reagan administration as things became unstable with the Soviets while Reagan continued to seek out ways to bring about peace whether or not the solution involved nuclear war.

In June 1983, Reagan's Secretary of Defense, Caspar Weinberger, his chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John William Vessey Jr., as well as dozens of high-ranking military personnel participated in a classified war game known as Proud Prophet which worked in real time at the National War College. It was not the first of its kind, but did prove to be one of the most beneficial in determining the efficacy of America's nuclear strategy. In this game, they utilized each of America's nuclear strike tactics which included:


 * Launch on warning: this was cut out almost immediately for fears of turning nuclear codes over to a computer which simply relied on a radar
 * Horizontal escalation: this involved attacking Soviet outposts to encourage a response and counterattack that would diminish the number of nuclear weapons. It was dismissed because the Soviets did not seem to care if they lost their satellite territories.
 * Early use: this was shown to be pointless because as the American team threatened the Soviet team, hoping the Soviets felt threatened and surrendered, instead felt threatened and responded with massive nuclear response
 * Tit-for-Tat: this proved irresponsible as the two sides volleyed nuclear weapons back and forth until MAD was achieved

In each of these instances, tested repeatedly and with different factors which would affect outcomes, the results were grim. Outcomes of the least deadly strategy resulted in a base level of half a billion deaths and more to come in the aftermath of a nuclear fallout contaminated and annihilated the northern hemisphere. In response to this information, the Reagan Administration changed their rhetoric and strategies changed, insisting on a permanent prevention of nuclear warfare.

A number of steps were taken to ensure the end of a nuclear threat from the Soviet and American fronts alike. Understanding that, realistically, a threat still existed and in an attempt to protect the United States, Reagan initiated his Strategic Defense Initiative (nicknamed the Star Wars program) as well as more intensive talks to bring about a nuclear freeze. These tensions came to a head when he discussed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Soviet Secretary-General Mikhail Gorbachev, which helped to reduce some of the nuclear weapons on both of the two opposing sides, slowing the arms race that had been growing at this time.

Political Background
Tensions amongst the Soviets and the United States were incredibly high in 1983. Project RYAN had been collecting data on the United States for years, attempting to predict a first strike, and playing into the paranoia experienced by the Soviet Union at the time. The United States had been conducting Able Archer war games annually, that culminated in the most realistic war game according to the Soviets with Able Archer 83. The disparity between the Soviets and the United States' beliefs concerning nuclear war was incredibly large. President Reagan recognized this disparity, and the increasing Soviet defenses and suspicion. He is quoted in his diary as saying: "I feel the Soviets are so defense minded, so paranoid about being attacked that without being in any way soft on them, we ought to tell them no one here has any intention of doing anything like that. What have they got that anyone would want? George is going on ABC right after its big nuclear bomb film Sunday night.  It shows why we must keep doing what we're doing."This thought process is directly opposite of what the Soviets believed at the time. Anatoly Dobrynin, the Soviet Ambassador at the time, truly believed that the possibility of nuclear war sharply increased in the 1980s. The Soviets truly believed the Reagan administration was headed for war. President Reagan believed that the Soviets were truly afraid of the United States and what they were capable of. Reagan is again quoted in his diary explaining this:"I picked his brains [President Mika Špiljak of Yugoslavia] about the Soviet Union. He was ambassador there for a time. He believes that coupled with their expansionist philosophy, they are also insecure and genuinely frightened of us.  He also believes that if we opened them up a bit, their leading citizens would get braver about proposing changes in their system.  I'm going to pursue this."It's clear that the United States did not have any intentions of launching a nuclear first strike against the Soviets, but were having a significant amount of trouble communicating this. Project RYAN continued to feed into Soviet fears that the United States was being dishonest, and Able Archer 83 simply fanned the flames.

The Beginning of Proud Prophet
After the idea of a war game was proposed, Karber brought in a Harvard professor, Thomas Schelling, to help design a game testing out the various proposals and strategies listed above. Schelling told Weinberg shortly after accepting the position that he believed the senior government leaders were incredibly unprepared to deal with making important decisions, should one of the strategies realistically happen. With that being said, Weinberg decided he would help formulate the game, but only if Karber could keep the games secret and would design the game to test the US war plans and as a learning exercise for the secretary. Weinberg was worried that the "fishbowl effect", fear of public exposure and embarrassment, would disturb the decisions made by players, which were the basis of his stipulations on being involved in the games.

The Game
Proud Prophet began on May 2, 1983, and began with a full day of simulation. The game was played in real time at the National Defense University that focused on the mobilization and industrial preparedness. The game continued for two weeks, around the clock, with most of it taking place in Washington. Many high ranking Military officers were in contact with Military Command posts across the globe playing out the scenarios in East Asia, the Mediterranean, Europe, and the Middle East. During the games, it was top secret that the Secretary of Defense and the Chief of Staff were also part of the war game, there would be no stand-ins. With security being of top priority, only a limited number of individuals knew who was actually involved, this prevented a media leak that could possibly scare leaders within the Soviet Union and its allies into thinking it was more than just an exercise.

Every morning, Karber went to the Pentagon or used a red phone to call the secretary and chairman to discuss the scenario being played out. They then talked about what actions needed to be taken by discussing US policy, possible alliance reactions, as well as what moves needed to be taken next. These scenarios took place so reaction times could be improved if something were to happen.

During the games, many scenarios were played out, especially the strategies mentioned earlier on, such as launch on warning, which did not make the cut; the idea of leaving a launch decision up to a computer was in no one's best interest. Point blank attacking Moscow also did not make the cut, considering just how many nuclear weapons the Soviets had. They would only strike back. Deploying NATO armies seemed like a good idea before the games, until the US realized that the taking of one piece of land meant they would lose much more than they gained. Limited nuclear attacks were also tossed. The Soviets only interpreted the strikes as attacks on their culture and struck back, rather than see that the US was quite capable of winning and give up. The games had the US strike back, which resulted in all out nuclear Armageddon with more than half a billion peopled killed, leaving a great part of the northern hemisphere uninhabitable. Needless to say, this strategy scared everyone and was tossed as well.

The results of the game were disturbing to all of those involved. Russian, Europe, and the United States were all completely destroyed. Most of the northern hemisphere would now be rendered uninhabitable, and 500 million people would be dead. It was estimated that half a billion people would also die from radiation and starvation in the months to follow the strikes. All of this would happen simply because the Secretary of State (Caspar Weinberger) and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (John William Vessey Jr.) followed the United States' strategy in place for such an event. This exercise served to highlight the weaknesses in the United States nuclear strategy. The amount of civilian casualties along with the complete destruction of three countries called for a complete revamping of how the United States would handle a situation like this developing. Proud Prophet also completely changed President Reagan's nuclear rhetoric concerning the Soviets. With the knowledge of Proud Prophet in mind, and the absolute catastrophe that nuclear war would bring, President Reagan could reevaluate how he dealt with the Soviets, and focus more on de-escalation rather than nuclear strong-arming.

Red Team (Soviets)
The Red Team was composed for Proud Prophet in order to strategize and take action based on what they thought the Soviets would do during the different scenarios. They were essentially the Soviet Team during Proud Prophet.

Red Team Laws of War
The following laws of war were followed by the Red Team and are found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. Marxism–Leninism is the foundation for the laws of war. There were four theoretical laws that the Soviets believed war depended on.

''1. The war and its end result depend on strictly military forces of combatants at the beginning of the war. This is based on the Soviets analyzing both World Wars and the invention of nuclear weapons that are capable of changing the course of the war significantly.''

''2. The war and its end result depends mainly on military potentials of combatants. This law places emphasis on the meaning of "military potentials" and how it does not strictly apply to military forces. Instead, the Soviets went further in depth with this term by including scientific, industrial, and research base along with workforce, technical and education levels of the population. They are considered military potentials based on the potential of administrative agencies being able to utilize these resources within the military.''

''3. The war and its end result depend on the political context. This law is based on population elements and how politics plays a role within the population. In order to be ready for war, the Soviets prepare psychologically, politically, and ideologically. The structure of the war must be done in a manner to maximally use propaganda throughout the war.''

''4. The war and its end result depend on the moral-political and psychological capabilities of the population and military of the combatants. This law depends on how the political figures manipulate the reasoning of the war to mentally prepare the military and population. This is done by making the enemy seem unjust and educating the population about how the effect of nuclear weapons not as bad as it seems. Basically, its a mental preparation for the nation as a whole so that there is 'positive energy' going into the war.''

Red National Goals
The national goals are found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. These were the goals that the Red Team wanted to achieve so any action taken during Proud Prophet was to be a step forward towards their goals.

1. Preserve the power of the ruling Communist Party.

2. Defend the homeland and ensure progress toward communism.

3. Defend acquired territories (Warsaw Pact countries) and further assimilate them.

4. Exploit every opportunity to expand RED control and disrupt capitalist control in order to shift the correlation of forces in favor of RED.

Red Team Strategic Principles
The following are found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. The 14 basic strategic principles that the Red Team followed were:

1. Foment dissension in enemy camp by supporting one or more internal dissident movements.

2. Do not support an ally if, in doing so, you will make him too strong.

3. Use the forces of allies, or even better one's enemy, to defeat the primary opponent.

4. Do not let your enemy grow too weak too soon if a third party will be the primary beneficiary rather than yourself.

5. Use propaganda and demands for concessions incessantly on the principle that familiarity with uncongenial subjects eventually breeds readiness to take them for granted.

6. Use terror on prospective areas to be conquered so the population will greet your conquest with relief.

7. Be flexible in approach and accept compromises as the basis for the new demands.

8. Use peace talks and truces as a time for regrouping, employing deception, and taking whatever advantage the opponent will tolerate.

9. Avoid two front wars.

10. Be patient, do not ask or everything at once. Ensure thorough consolidation of previous positions before advancing.

11. Build such an overwhelming military power that an opponent will realize he must not accommodate.

12. Combine offensive and defensive methods, tools, and weapons in a coordinated manner designed to ensure retention of the initiative.

13. Use psychological technique known as "reflexive control" to lead an opponent into unwittingly doing what you want.

14. Remember the critical importance of time as a key factor in warfare. Establish time-phased goals based on thorough testing to determine minimum realistic and feasible times required to accomplish missions.

Red Team Non-Military Forms of War
The Soviets believe that they have more strength in their non-military forms of war in comparison to the Western countries. Because of this belief, the Soviets maximized the use of these forms of war. The following three non-military forms of war can be found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document.

1. Economic - Use Western weaknesses in financial structure and energy resources as levers to create unemployment, panic and clashes between peoples and governments.

2. Cultural - Use cultural concerns as psychological levers to prevent western use of nuclear weapons.

3. Political - Manipulate local political interests, as well as groups and individuals.