Aleppo offensive (October 2015 – present)

The Aleppo offensive is an operation that started on 16 October when the Syrian Army launched a large-scale strategic offensive south of Aleppo. The main objective of the operation is to secure the Azzan Mountains, while also creating a larger buffer-zone around the Syrian Government’s only highway leading to the provincial capital. The objective was also reportedly to set conditions for an upcoming offensive to isolate rebel forces in Aleppo City and to relieve the long-standing siege of a pro-government enclave in Aleppo Province. Gen. Qasem Soleimani was reported to have personally led the drive deep into the southern Aleppo countryside where many town and villages have fallen into government hands. Gen. Soleimani has been in command of the Syrian Arab Army’s 4th Mechanized Division, Hezbollah, Harakat Al-Nujaba (Iraqi), Kataebat Hezbollah (Iraqi), Liwaa Abu Fadl Al-Abbas (Iraqi), and Firqa Fatayyemoun (Afghan/Iranian volunteers). The Syrian government's progress deep into the southern Aleppo countryside has been attributed in large part to the Iranian leadership during the offensive.

Preparations
The origins of the planning of the offensive in Aleppo could be traced back to Gen. Qasem Soleimani's visit to Moscow in July 2015. Gen. Soleimani was reportedly sent to Syria by the supreme leader of Iran himself, Ali Khamenei, in order to discuss military matters with his Russian couterparts and coordinate a joint escalation of forces in Syria.

One month before the offensive south of Aleppo, the military launched another operation east of the city in an attempt to break the two-year siege of the Kuweyres military air base.

Major General Qasem Soleimani reportedly traveled from Latakia Governorate’s northeastern countryside to the Al-Safeera District of southern Aleppo in order to personally oversee the first phase of the large-scale offensive in the Azzan Mountains. Soleimani did not travel alone to Aleppo – he was escorted by a large convoy of armored vehicles that were largely made up of Iraqi Shi’i militiamen; these aforementioned fighters were tasked with carrying out the planned operations around the Aleppo Governorate’s countryside. Major General Suleimani traveled to Syria on the night of 12 October, to meet with the Iranian and Russian military advisors overseeing the large-scale operations around the Aleppo Governorate’s rural terrain. He was joined by six other senior military officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Syrian Government offensive
At 10 A.M. (Damascus Time) on the morning of 16 October, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) – in coordination with Hezbollah, the National Defense Forces (NDF), and Kata’ebat Al-Ba’ath (Al-Ba’ath Battalions) – launched their large-scale southern Aleppo offensive after almost one year of inactivity along this rural area in the Azzan Mountains. According to field reports from the provincial capital, the Syrian Armed Forces and Hezbollah captured four sites from the Islamist rebels of Jabhat Al-Shamiyah (Levantine Front), Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, and the Free Syrian Army (FSA), killing a number of combatants in the process of their advance in the Aleppo Governorate’s southern countryside.

On 17 October, government forces backed by shi'ite militia captured the villages of ‘Abtayn, Al-Wadayhi and Qala’at Al-Najam, along with the Defense Battalion Base and the farms surrounding it. Later that day, government forces advanced towards Al-Shughaydilah and secured the southern axis of ‘Abtayn and Tal Shaghib near the Khanaser-Ethria highway.

On 18 October, government forces captured the village of al-Wadihi. With this, the military was in control of: al-Wadihi, al-Sabqiyya, Ebtin, Tal al-Shahid and Kdar, while it was unclear who controlled al-Shgaydalah after a rebel-counterattack to retake it from the Army. The counterattack was carried out by Sham Revolutionary Brigades and Division 13, the latter a CIA-funded secular group, with videos showing a TOW missile attack destroying a bulldozer and later capturing a BMP-1.

On 19 October, government forces captured three hills: al-Snobrat, al-Mahruqat and al-Syriatel. The commander of the Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki rebel group was killed in the fighting during the day. Since the beginning of the offensive, the Army lost at least 11 armored vehicles to TOW AT missiles, according to the SOHR. More weapons and ammunition were also supplied to the FSA through the weekend including mortars and TOWs according to Issa Al-Turkmani a Sultan Murad brigade spokesman. It is also reported that Saudi Arabia alone has delivered 500 AT missiles this weekend, but another rebel spokesman said that the quantity of TOWs was inadequate for the scale of the assault, pointing out that once the missiles were distributed among the groups each ended up with just a couple of tubes, stating that they needed dozens more per group.

On 20 October, a rebel official stated the "losses are heavy on both sides and the regime’s advance is very slow". Meanwhile, tens of thousands of people have reportedly fled the southern Aleppo countryside. On 21 October, government forces took control of Al-Sufayrah, Al-Huwayz and reportedly Al-Qarassi.

The following morning, 22 October, government forces backed by Shi'ite militia continued their advance and captured Balas, Kafr ‘Abid, Ghayghan (also known as Tal Maflass) and Al-Ayoubi (including its surrounding farms). By this time, government forces reportedly lost at least 15 tanks, armored vehicles and bulldozers since the offensive begun.

ISIL offensives and rebel counterattacks
On 23 October, ISIL launched an attack on the Khanaser-Ethria highway (the main government supply route between Hama and Aleppo), after detonating two VBIED's, and captured 6 km of a road. Subsequently, government forces recaptured some parts of it. The clashes over the next 24 hours resulted in the death of 28 ISIL fighters and 21 soldiers of the Syrian army. According to the IUCA, the attack was coordinated with the rebels. That day, 24 rebels (including the military leader of the Thwar al-Sham battalions and a commander of the Army of Mujahedeen) were killed in the southern Aleppo countryside, while a rebel spokesman claimed that SAA losses of vehicles had reached 21. At the end of the day, rebels recaptured al-Hamra village, while government forces reportedly recaptured most of the Khanaser-Ethria highway.

On 24 October, Army sources reported that it had recaptured the western outskirts of Ithriyah, however the main supply route to Aleppo remained cut off. That day, a second leader in the Nur al-Din Zanki Movement was killed, while a rebel and NDF commander were wounded in the Aleppo countryside. The number of government fighters killed at the Khanaser-Ethria highway rose to at least 43. At the end of the day, ISIL launched an attack on the eastern suburbs of Aleppo city and captured Tal Reeman and Al-Salihiyah, before government fighters could repel their further attacks with the help of Russian airplanes.

On 25 October, rebels attacked, captured and eventually lost the strategically important cement plant area on the outskirts of Aleppo's Sheikh Saeed neighborhood after heavy clashes that led to the death of 14 government fighters and 10 rebels. Meanwhile, government forces reportedly recaptured two checkpoints along the Khanaser-Ethria highway, before a sandstorm forcibly halted all military operations in Aleppo. According to the SOHR, ISIL was still in control of parts of the highway, blocking the main supply route to Aleppo.

On 26 October, ISIL re-attacked the Khanaser-Ethria highway and captured a checkpoint, killing eight government fighters. Meanwhile, rebels recaptured Tell Hamiriyyeh hill and Khalsa farms in the southern Aleppo countryside. The next day, ISIL also attacked the strategical town of As-Safira in southeastern Aleppo after detonating four VBIED's in the area. ISIL captured "key" military positions near the town and managed to enter Tel Aran. ISIL also managed to enter the northern district of As-Safira, but were reportedly pushed out with the help of reinforcements. Later that day, government forces also regained their positions in the al-Safira area.

On 28 October, ISIL recaptured the town of Jabboul, but were repelled by government fighters at Al-Aziziyah, where ISIL reportedly suffered 50 dead. Russian airstrikes bombed a rebel headquarters in the Aleppo countryside and killed at least 7 rebels that day.

Renewed government advances
On 30 October, government forces recaptured the Tal Ithriya hill near the Khanaser-Ethria highway. The Syrian army also reportedly repelled ISIL at Sheikh Hilal and Al-Sa’an. According to the same sources, the Army also carried out a successful mission near the town of Khan Touman and captured farms located between the strategic towns of Khan Touman and Qarass in southern Aleppo. On the next day, the Syrian Army and its allies captured the villages of Jamaymah and Maryameen in the southern countryside of Aleppo.

On 1 November, government forces continued their march through southern Aleppo countryside, capturing the small village Tal Dadeen and of its strategic hilltop and the small village of Khirbat Al-Shalash, this assault reportedly resulted in a complete withdrawal of rebels inside these villages to their stronghold at Al-Hadher. Rebels recaptured al-Hobaz hill, al-Jam’ia hill and al-Qarasi. But later confusion ensued as to whom controlled the villages with local activists dening that the Islamist rebels and the FSA where in full control of Tal Huwayz and Al-Qarassi, while the rebels claiming that they also tried taking Al-Waddihi - a town that lies beyond Tal Huwayz and Al-Qarassi. The FSA failed in taking Al-Waddihi but not before managing to destroy an SAA tank and a Shilka which were parked outside the town guarding it.

On 2 November, government reportedly also took al-Shughaydilah and the town of Hadidi near the strategic town of Al-Hadher and advanced inside the town of Kafr Haddad. Later, the Syrian Army and Hezbollah captured the eastern entrance of the strategic town Al-Hadher after intense firefights with Islamist rebels and Free Syrian Army. Then ISIL captured the village of Ta’anah and its hill from Syrian troops. At the end of the day, rebels recaptured "wide parts" of Jabal al-Banjira.

On 3 November, government forces reportedly recaptured Al-Ta’anah from ISIL, while the same sources claimed that a large ISIL attack on Tal-Arn was repelled. The following day, on 4 November, Syrian troops regain control over the strategic Khanasser-Ithriya Highway after 12 days of clashes with ISIL, killing 7 fighters - 4 through beheading. While retreating towards al-Tabbaqa, a huge ISIS convoy was reportedly strucked by Russian airplanes; the death rate reported in this attack was 50+.

On 5 November, rebels recaptured Telat al-Maqbara and Telat al-Saru. On 6 November, Syrian Army captured the village of Kafr Haddad.

On 8 November, government forces captured Tal Mamou, al-Aziziyah and Talaylat (all of which are positioned directly south of Al-Hadhir). Later, rebels briefly retook the village of Talaylat before a counterattack by the Syrian army and their allies drove them out once again, allowing a resumption of the advance on the town of Al-Hadhir. On 9 November, rebels recaptured positions in Talaylat and al-Aziziyah.

On 10 November, government forces recaptured the village of Aziziyah. Also, government forces captured the villages of Makahlah, Um Tawous and Kherbet al-Mahal. Rebels recaptured a number of farms around Al-Hadhir later that day.

On 11 November, rebels recaptured Kherbet al-Mahal and parts of Tam al-Kosa.

On 12 November, government forces captured the villages of Musharfah Al-Murayj and Tal Al-Arba’een after clashes with rebels. Later, government forces took control of the key rebel-held town of Al-Hader south of city Aleppo and the town of Al-Eis and its surroundings after heavy clashes with rebels. Four tanks and APC's were destroyed by rebel TOW crews. On the same day, government forces captured the villages of Khirbat Al-Muhal and Tal Bajjar.

On 13 November, government forces captured the large village of Banes the nearby village of Rasm Al-Sahreej in the southern countryside of Aleppo after heavy clashes with rebels, followed by the capture of Jabal Al-Eiss and the hilltop village of Tal Bajjar, which is located just south of Jabal Al-Eiss, with this last capture the government forces have taken control of 341 square kilometers of territory. On the same day Government forces and allies broke through west yet again capturing the town of Tell Hadiya adjacent to the Idlib-Aleppo highway. Later, government forces attacked Birnah and Zaytan around ICARDA base and captured Birnah.

On the same day, government forces and allies had cut the Aleppo-Damascus highway by seizing several strategic sites including the village of Al-Barqoum and the ICARDA base. Also, government forces recaptured the village of Tulaytat.

On 17 November, government forces captured Khalasah (known as Halash), after they advance from the nearby village Al-Hamraa. On the next day, rebels recaptured the five farms (known as the Banes farms) near the village of Banes.

On 20 November, government troops captured Burj Al-Rouman and advanced to the village of Al-‘Umariyah, to the southwest of Al-Safira.

By this point, the military halted their offensive, in expectation of the arrival of new T-90 tanks, which would come by the end of the month.

Rebel counter-attack
On 21 November, rebels launched a counter-offensive at Tal al-Eis, while government forces re-entered Khan Tuman and reportedly seized several points in the eastern district of Aleppo city. By 23 November, the rebels recaptured seven villages and two hills, including: Kafr Haddad, Tal Al-Bakarah, Tal Mamou, Tal Al-Banijayrah, Al-‘Aziziyah, Al-Makahlah, Al-Khariyah, Tal Bajar and Birnah. Al-Nusra seized a number of US-made Humvees from Shia militia near Tal Mamou.

On 28 November, the rebels recaptured al-Maryoudah village.

Strategic analysis
Christopher Kozak of the Institute for the Study of War speculated that the assault was nothing more than a diversionary tactic intended to move rebel forces away from reopening the access to Nubl and cut the Aleppo–Turkey highway, their primary objective in his opinion.

Hezbollah's main incentive in participating in the offensive is believed to be similar to their agenda elsewhere, securing Shi'ite villages. Their ultimate objective is believed to be reaching the villages of Kafriya and Al-Fu'ah, thus lifting the siege imposed by Al-Nusra Front.