Igor Panarin

Igor Nikolaevich Panarin (И́горь Никола́евич Пана́рин, ; born 30 October 1958) is a Russian professor and political scientist. He is best known for his hypothesis of possible disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010, conceived by him as early as 1998 but only gaining world attention ten years later.

Igor Panarin has written 15 books and a number of articles on information warfare, psychology, and geopolitics. He is often interviewed by Russian and foreign (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNN, BBC, Sky News) media on issues of Russian policy, development of relationships with the USA, etc. Panarin also has his own weekly radio programme.

He has led electoral campaigns in Russia and abroad, and his students have included parliamentary deputies, regional leaders, Kremlin officials, and Foreign Ministry spokespeople. His interests include history, philosophy, psychology, computer science, communication, election technology, conceptual problems of globalisation, and the theory and practice of information warfare.

Biography
Panarin graduated from the Higher Military Command School of Telecommunications of the KGB (now the Academy of Federal Security Guard Service of the Russian Federation) in Oryol and the Division of Psychology of the Military-Political Academy (with a gold medal). In 1993 he defended his thesis for Candidate of Psychological Sciences, titled "Psychological Factors of the Officer's Activity in Conditions of Innovations". His Doctorate in Political Sciences was awarded by the Russian Academy of Public Administration in 1997 for a thesis titled "Informational-Psychological Support of the National Security of Russia".

Panarin began his career in the KGB of the USSR in 1976. After 1991, he worked in the FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency, reaching the Colonel rank. His field of activity was strategic analysis and integration of closed and open information streams, information stream management in crisis situations, and situation modelling of global processes. He did strategic forecasts for the then President Boris Yeltsin. From 1999 to 2003, he worked as the Head of the Analytical Division of the Central Election Commission of Russia. From 2006 to 2007, Panarin was the Press Secretary of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roskosmos), the Russian analogue of the U.S. NASA.

Prof. Panarin started his teaching career in 1989 and has taught in the Moscow State University (MGU), the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University), the Russian Academy of Public Administrataion, and the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, where he has worked since 1999. He also carries out activities on his own. In 2004, he launched his official website. In April 2008, his first training seminar called "Information warfare – technologies for success" was held. It was targeted at top managers of state and business structures, press service managers of authorities and large corporations, anti-crisis management experts, and decision makers in time-deficit situations. On 20 May 2009, Panarin started World politics – his own weekly radio programme on the Voice of Russia radio.

Panarin is currently the dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's school for future diplomats and appears regularly on Russian television channels.

Views and ideas
Panarin says he is a supporter of Russia as a superstate but claims that Russia presently has no imperial ambitions. He also supports Pan-Eurasian nationalism of Nikolai Trubetzkoy. Panarin criticises Vladimir Lenin and Leon Trotsky but recognizes Joseph Stalin for realizing a geopolitical project of his own – a synthesised historical Russian geopolitical idea of Joseph Volotsky, Philotheus, Nikolay Danilevsky and Konstantin Leontiev. In his view, after 1934 Stalin started a process of recreation of the Rus doctrine "Moscow – a Third Rome" in new historical conditions.

On 3 July 1941 when Stalin addressed the Soviet people as "Brothers and sisters", this doctrine became the dominating geopolitical idea of the USSR-Rus and replaced the Lenin-Trotsky's idea of world revolution that was an external (imported) geopolitical project. The Pan-Eurasian nationalism of Trubetzkoy, joint with the "Moscow – a Third Rome" idea realised in the conditions of the Soviet order yielded a result – the USSR won a victory in the global skirmish with Fascism. And the Trotskyist ideas won at the end of the 20th century in the USA and brightly manifested themselves in the ideology of the liberal globalism of a part of the contemporary American political elite (globalists).

Panarin condemns the activity of the last General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union – Mikhail Gorbachev. On the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the latter's rise to power (on 11 March 1985), Panarin called him "the Antihero of Russia". On Panarin's initiative, an action called a Public Tribunal against Gorbachev for the downfall of the USSR and crimes against its peoples was carried out at the web portal KM.ru from 2 to 22 December 2005, resulting in 56,298 people condemning Gorbachev.

Panarin opposes the Houston programme of 1990 and criticises the Russian finance minister Alexey Kudrin for following it, saying the 2008 financial crisis in Russia is a part of it. He recommends selling oil and gas to Ukraine only for roubles (which in his view would automatically block its process of integration in NATO) and withdrawal of all Russian funds from the American "financial Titanic", buying gold and creating powerful Russian banks. He also recommends granting credits only in roubles.

New British Empire
In 2005, Panarin coined the term "New British Empire", which in his view started forming in 1945 (later he said that the Dulles brothers created it) and consists of 7 levels, with the following structure (subordinate from top to bottom):


 * 1) American-British transnational capital: Control centres – London and New York, analytical centre – RAND Corporation (USA, California).
 * 2) USA: Control centre – Washington DC, analytical centre – the State Department of the USA.
 * 3) British Commonwealth: Control centre – London, analytical centre – the BBC.
 * 4) Trojan horse states: Poland, Saudi Arabia
 * 5) Economically controlled states
 * 6) Politically controlled states
 * 7) Destabilisation states: Central Asian states, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Yugoslavia

Panarin has written that the September 11 attacks in 2001 may have been aimed at replacing levels 2 and 3 of the New British Empire with China and the Chinese Commonwealth, respectively (see also his book "Information warfare and geopolitics"), accelerating the U.S. collapse, or preventing it.

Prediction of the USA's collapse in 2010
In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow analysts at FAPSI, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2008), following a civil war triggered by mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation. He forecast financial and demographic changes provoking a political crisis in which wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government, effectively seceding from the Union, leading to social unrest, civil war, national division, and intervention of foreign powers. Panarin sees the task of the world elite as not letting the USA follow the Yugoslavian model of disintegration; it is desirable that it follows the Czechoslovakian model of disintegration so that everything goes calmly and peacefully.

Explaining his theory in an interview with Izvestia, Panarin stated that "The [US] dollar isn’t secured by anything. The country’s foreign debt has grown like an avalanche; this is a pyramid, which has to collapse...Dissatisfaction is growing, and it is only being held back at the moment by the elections, and the hope [that President-elect Barack Obama] “can work miracles. But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.”

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal in 2008, Panarin said: "'There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur...One could rejoice in that process...But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia.' Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.'"

In March 2009, Panarin gave a speech at the Diplomatic Academy in which he stated that "There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010" and predicted that Russia and China, which will soon become economic superpowers, will need to collaborate to rebuild the world economy with a new currency once the United States (and the US Dollar) cease to exist.

This hypothesis gained world attention a decade after its initial announcement due to the 2008 financial crisis and has been widely criticised since.

In October 2011, Panarin stated that Occupy Wall Street protests have "highlighted the ever-deepening split with America's ruling elite." He also cited several American professors and analysts who he claims support his view that the United States will soon collapse, including Gerald Celente, Stephen F. Cohen, and Thomas W. Chittum.

Other ideas
Panarin conceived a number of other ideas, given below in chronological order, which also reflect his views on the respective subjects. One of them (the rouble-denominated oil-trading exchange) has already been implemented.


 * Informational-psychological subunits in government and military directorates: proposed in 1997; would develop strategic and operational measures to prevent or neutralise attempts to control the psyche of Russian society (i.e. a strategy of psychological defence). A Chief Directorate in Support of Psychological Security would ensure the psychological component of Russian national security.


 * Information Service for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) with headquarters in Moscow: proposed in his book Information warfare and the world (2003) for more effective information-analytical support of SCO activities and more reliable presentation of analytical information to the leadership of SCO countries.


 * Reforms of Russia's foreign policy propaganda system: proposed in February 2005. First steps – introduction of the post of Foreign Policy Propaganda and Informational Counteraction Advisor of the President of Russia, creation of a State Commission for Public Diplomacy of Russia (later renamed to a Council for Public Diplomacy; in December 2008 he amended an Information Security Committee and an Information Counter-intelligence Service among the others within it). Panarin also proposed the submission to Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Voice of Russia radio and the RIA Novosti press agency (further, based on the so created structure, formation of a Foreign Policy Media Holding within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia) and creation of non-governmental organisations of Russia, acting on the territory of the CIS countries, the EU, and the USA.


 * Doctrine of the New Eurasia: proposed in October 2005 to counter the New British Empire (see above). He viewed the Continental Arc Paris-Berlin-Moscow-Beijing-Delhi-Tehran as its kernel and Russia and Germany as strategic partners and coordinators-bridges of the increasingly strengthening economic and humanitarian relations on the Eurasian space. He said that allying with France, Germany integrates the West European space ( Berlin-Paris-Madrid-Rome-Brussels-Copenhagen-Oslo-Stockholm-Helsinki ) but it must restore its sovereignty by freeing ASAP from U.S. military as General Charles de Gaulle did in France in 1966–1967. He saw Russia as integrator of the Byzantine, East European, and Central Asian space ( Moscow-Minsk-Kiev-Bratislava-Prague-Zagreb-Belgrade-Tirana-Athens-Bucharest-Kishinev-Warsaw-Astana-Dushanbe-Tashkent-Ashgabat-Baku-Yerevan-Tbilisi-Istanbul ) and proposed the creation of a new Eurasian body – Information-Analytical Coordination Bureau based in Moscow. (In May 2009 he renamed the bureau to "Eurasian Bureau".)


 * Media and terrorism: later the same month Panarin proposed imposition of severe limits on the media on showing violence acts and during terrorist acts, when the media and the authorities must cooperate. He said that the media must never give the terrorists a tribune or help them acquire operational information, and double media standards are intolerable. He proposed a contract on anti-terror between the authorities and the media with a behavioural codex of the journalists and the creation of a special state body for informational counteraction organisation and coordination of the information activities of all state structures operating to counter terror. In his view, the media are to a certain degree a catalyst for terrorism because terrorist acts of such a volume would be impossible without them; also, the press induces panic in the organs of state authority and affects the public negatively.




 * Eurasian Union: proposed in January 2006 as Eurasian Rus – an interstate formation modelled after the European Union on the territory of the post-Soviet area headed by a Prince (after Machiavelli) that would restore and strengthen the economic integration, with gradual incorporation of a series of Balkan and other countries. He proposed Vladimir Putin as the first Prince of the formation, which he renamed in 2009 to Eurasian Union and proposed St Petersburg as its capital by 2012, when in his view only 3 planetary centres of force would exist – the European Union (EU-1), the Eurasian Union (EU-2), and the Chinese Commonwealth. In April 2009 he proposed a second, Southern capital – Alma-Ata and in May 2009 – two more capitals: Kiev in 2014 and Belgrade in 2020.


 * Rouble-denominated oil-trading exchange in Russia: proposed in February 2006. Such an exchange was opened in St Petersburg on 24 September 2008, and as soon as in March 2009, Rosneft (the leader in the Russian oil field and one of the largest public oil companies in the world) sold by auction 7.6 thousands of tonnes of oil products for 97 millions roubles. For March, the auction volume amounts to 15–20 thousands of tonnes of oil products monthly. Besides Rosneft, other major Russian oil companies like Gazprom Oil, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and TNK-BP also plan to go to the exchange, and crude oil trade is expected to start in a few months.


 * Information-ideological geopolitical development concept: proposed in 2008 in his book Information warfare for the future of Russia, where he develops the basic ideas of Eurasian integration. In his view, by 2012 Russia will have made a transition from sovereign democracy to a geopolitical project of Eurasian Integration.


 * Quintilateral Commission (5 sides from the 5 continents; compare with the Trilateral Commission): proposed in January 2009 as an expert mechanism for international consultation on seeking ways out of the world crisis. In March 2009 he said that the commission's task would be to create powerful instruments of national and international forecasting.


 * New world currency – ACURE: proposed in March 2009. To be based on the three leading world currencies: the Asian Currency Unit (a regional currency basket that was first proposed in 2006 based on the currencies of Japan, China, and South Korea along with the ASEAN group), the rouble, and the euro. In his view, the coordinated introduction of the ACURE in 20 countries would allow a painless transition to a new model of world development.


 * Bi-currency basket to replace the USD for the SCO: in April 2009 Panarin proposed integration of Eurasia and a new development model to faster overcome the global crisis, including working out a new Joint Anti-Crisis Programme for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and dropping the U.S. dollar in favour of a rouble-yuan bi-currency basket as the SCO currency. He proposed 3 mutual payment levels for the SCO: 1) national currencies, 2) rouble or yuan, and 3) bi-currency basket, and offered the SCO to propose the ACURE as the new world currency on the 2009 G-20 Pittsburgh summit.


 * Russian-American information-analytical anti-crisis centre: proposed later the same month, with expert-analytical and project-prognostic divisions, to offer the Russian and U.S. leaders joint proposals for finding the way out of the global financial crisis. Consisting of scientists, analysts, journalists, and civil society representatives, whose special analytical reports and prognoses would be systematically brought to the notice of the leaders of the UN Security Council member countries.

Books

 * Psychological security of the army, Moscow, 1996
 * Psychological aspects of ensuring the national security of Russia, Moscow, 1995 (part I), 1996 (part II)
 * Information warfare and Russia, School aid of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2000,
 * Information warfare and authority, Security World, 2001, ISBN 5-89258-033-4
 * Information. Diplomacy. Psychology, Izvestia, 2002, ISBN 5-206-00606-8
 * Information warfare technology, KSP+, 2003, ISBN 5-89692-084-9
 * Information warfare and the world, OLMA-Press, 2003, ISBN 5-224-04397-2
 * Information warfare and elections, Gorodets, 2003, ISBN 5-9584-0002-9
 * Information warfare: victory in Bashkiria, Gorodets, 2004, ISBN 5-9584-0021-5
 * Information warfare and diplomacy, Gorodets, 2004, ISBN 5-9584-0032-0
 * Information warfare and the Third Rome, Cyril and Methodius, 2005, on-line book,
 * Information warfare, PR, and the world politics, Hotline – Telecom, 2006, ISBN 5-93517-297-6
 * Information warfare and geopolitics, Generation, 2006, ISBN 5-9763-0001-4
 * Information warfare for the future of Russia, Hotline – Telecom, 2008, ISBN 978-5-9912-0039-4
 * The crash of the dollar and the disintegration of the USA, Hotline – Telecom, 2009, ISBN 978-5-9912-0113-1
 * World after crisis, or what is next, Piter Publishing House, 2011, ISBN 978-5-459-00319-2

Articles

 * Psychological security of military personnel, Landmark, issue No. 8, 1995
 * Information security problems in modern conditions, 1997
 * Strengthening of the role of the informational factors in Russia's national security system, Authority, issue No. 1, 1998,
 * Information warfare and financial crises, VIP, issue No. 1, 1999
 * Is a collapse of the USA in 2010 possible?, Authority, issue No. 6, 1999,
 * Unoccupied heights. Public opinion as an object of influence and struggle in the contemporary armed conflict, Security World, issue No. 7, 1999,
 * Is Russia ready for the 21st century information warfare?, Authority, issue No. 2, 2000,
 * Nontraditional view on the problem of foreign debt, Banking in Moscow, issue No. 3, 2001
 * Information warfare: theory and practice, Human Resource Policies, issue No. 2, 2002
 * An instrument of foreign policy, Military-industrial courier, issue No. 32, 2008,
 * Secrets of 11 September, Military-industrial courier, issue No. 37, 2008,
 * A system of informational counteraction, Military-industrial courier, issue No. 41, 2008,
 * The Dollar as a world currency will vanish in the autumn of 2009, Metal buildings, issue No. 3, 2009,