Vladimir Alexandrov

Vladimir Valentinovich Alexandrov (Владимир Валентинович Александров; born 1938; disappeared 1985) was a Russian physicist who created a mathematical model for the nuclear winter theory. He disappeared while at a nuclear winter conference in Madrid and his ultimate fate remains unknown.

Research
According to a FBI white paper Alexandrov was a mathematician specializing in computer sciences. In 1976 he was directed to shift his research from gas dynamics and plasma mechanics to climatology. He was sent to USA under a research exchange agreement, and studied at the NCAR in 1978, 1980 and 1982. In 1983 he was directed by Evgeny Velikhov to work on nuclear winter scenarios heading an ad hoc group of 20 scientists.

A pioneer in global climate modelling, he presented a mathematical solution to baroclinicity in 1982. The following year, with G.I. Stenchikov, he used the model to calculate the consequences of nuclear war and the prospects of nuclear winter. Richard P. Turco, a major figure in the development of the nuclear winter scenario, described Alexandrov and Stenchikov's model as "a very weak piece of work" and "a primitive rendition of an obsolete US model."

Disappearance
How Alexandrov disappeared and what happened to him afterward remains unknown,   but several theories have been put forward. According to an article in the newsmagazine Time in October 1985, "The mystery of his disappearance has been compounded by the suspicions of some Western scientists that the nuclear winter scenario was promoted by Moscow to give antinuclear groups in the U.S. and Europe some fresh ammunition against America's arms buildup. Conspiracy theorists speculate that Alexandrov was planning to renounce the nuclear winter concept and may have been kidnapped by the KGB. According to another theory, the physicist defected to the West." A. Levakov suggests that his work on nuclear winter was as embarrassing to the Soviet Union as it was to the USA. According to the Mitrokhin Archive, during a conference in 1987 the head of the KGB's First Chief Directorate Vladimir Kryuchkov accused the CIA's Deputy Director Robert Gates of kidnapping Alexandrov and holding him against his will. Andrew Revkin assumes that he was a spy; it was never clear whether for the USSR, USA, or both.